High-end Realty Specialist

In recent years, the number of newly built condominiums being “purchased and resold within a short period”—so-called short-term flipping—has visibly increased in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Osaka. Short-term flipping refers to the practice of buying a property expected to appreciate and selling it within several months to about a year to capture profit.

Once limited mainly to certain investors, this practice has spread to general buyers over the past few years, and in central Tokyo it has become a clearly recognizable feature of the market. In particular, the percentage of newly built condos resold within a short period has risen sharply in the six central wards of Tokyo, signaling a notable shift in market dynamics.

The rise in short-term flipping appears to be driven by multiple factors, including surging property prices, supply-demand conditions in popular areas, and trends among overseas investors. This article examines regional patterns, differences by price segment, and the influence of overseas residents based on the latest available data.

Short-term flipping increases in Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, and Hyogo

The ratio of short-term flips from January to June 2024 was:

• Tokyo: 8.5%
• Kanagawa: 5.1%
• Osaka: 6.2%
• Hyogo: 7.1%

All of these exceed recent averages, and Tokyo in particular rose sharply from 5.2% in 2023.

Compared with the highest levels seen in the past five years (2018–2022), Tokyo’s 2024 figure surpasses the previous peak of 7.3% in 2021, indicating increasing activity. The closer to the city center, the higher the percentage, suggesting that short-term flipping is becoming established as a trading practice in central areas.

Sharp rise in short-term flipping among large-scale condominium projects

A recent trend is that over 80% of short-term flips occur in large-scale condominium developments. Properties with many units tend to have higher liquidity, making them easier to resell.

By area, Tokyo’s 23 wards show a short-term flipping rate of 3.5%, while the central six wards reach 7.5%. Similar patterns are observed in Osaka and Kyoto, where core urban areas show higher ratios than the prefecture average.

The most volatile area is Shinjuku Ward, which surged from 1.9% in 2024 to 14.6% in January–June 2025, an increase of about 12.9% in just eighteen months, reflecting significant changes in supply and demand.

In Tokyo’s central six wards, short-term flipping is concentrated in the mid-price range under ¥200 million

Among new condos flipped between January 2023 and June 2024 in the central six wards:

• Under ¥100 million: 63.0% (516 units)
• ¥100–200 million: 30.8% (252 units)
• Over ¥200 million: 6.2% (51 units)

A total of 93.8% fall under ¥200 million, indicating that mid-priced properties dominate the short-term flipping market rather than ultra-luxury segments.

Furthermore, 97.4% of buyers (748 units) were domestic residents, while overseas residents accounted for only 2.6% (20 units). This confirms that domestic end-users and local investors are the core participants.

Overseas buyers of new condos gradually increasing

Overall, overseas residents account for only 0–3% of new-build condo purchases, but this share is slowly rising.

Shares of purchases by overseas residents (Jan–Jun 2025):

• Tokyo: 3.0%
• Osaka: 2.6%
• Kyoto: 2.3%

Tokyo’s figure has doubled compared with 1.5% in 2024.

Before the pandemic, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were the dominant sources, but recently Taiwan has become the largest group, with purchases also coming from Singapore, the U.S., and the U.K. However, their participation in short-term flipping of high-priced units (over ¥200 million) remains limited.

Overall purchases in the central six wards: over half under ¥100 million, high-priced units under 10%

New-build condo purchases (Jan 2023–Dec 2024) in the central six wards:

• Under ¥100 million: 56.7% (4,891 units)
• ¥100–200 million: 37.3% (3,218 units)
  → Results: 93.9% under ¥200 million (8,109 units)
• Over ¥200 million: 6.1% (523 units)

The overseas-resident share is similar across price ranges:

• Under ¥200 million: 3.2%
• Over ¥200 million: 3.8%

Overseas residents’ short-term flipping also trending upward

In Tokyo’s 23 wards, overseas residents purchase around 300 units per year, relatively stable. However, short-term flips among them have been increasing in both number and percentage. The 23 wards maintain a short-term flipping rate of 6–9%, likely due to strong liquidity and convenience.

Summary

Short-term flipping of newly built condominiums is becoming increasingly prominent, especially in central Tokyo. The trend is most notable among large-scale developments and mid-priced properties in the ¥100–200 million range, with domestic residents playing a central role. Overseas participation is rising slowly but remains limited, especially for high-priced units.

Given continued shifts in supply-demand dynamics, price segments, and investor behavior, further detailed analysis of the new-build condo market will remain essential.

 

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